In a bold stroke of strategic genius in pursuit of peace in Ukraine, the Europeans – well, France and the United Kingdom – have decided on a course of action that will ensure the war’s continuance. France’s idea of deploying a multinational ‘reassurance force’ in Ukraine is incomprehensible in the face of Russia’s adamancy that the presence of foreign forces, whether under the NATO banner or not, is totally unacceptable. One might more fittingly call this a ‘farce de réassurance‘; it is a bizarre initiative, proposed by leaders whose own political positions are not strong domestically. The approach appears politically problematic, impractical militarily, and self-defeating diplomatically. How can the observer make sense of this?
Repeatedly, the Russians have stated that among the prime motivations for their invasion of Ukraine was that they assessed that the presence of NATO troops on their western border following Ukraine’s accession to the alliance would be an intolerable threat to their national security. The narrative in Europe is that Russia’s actual motivation was revanchist, and more than that, that it was some insatiable desire for imperial expansion and the domination of Europe. Perhaps they believe Russia can be forced to abandon its stated objectives and offer deep compromises for peace. The political fact, however, is that the reason that President Putin has used to justify to the Russian people the immense cost, pain, and loss, that the war has brought is defending Russia against a hostile west in the guise of NATO expansion.
On the surface, it seems unlikely Putin could hold on to power if the fighting came to a cessation through him conceding that European troops, primarily from NATO Member nations, are to be stationed in Ukraine and in Ukrainian waters. By announcing that 26 countries “have formally committed … to deploy as a reassurance force troops in Ukraine, or be present on the ground, in the sea, or in the air” President Macron has seemingly put a non-negotiable obstacle in the way of ceasefire negotiations. Ambiguously, Macron explained that these troops would not be deployed “on the front line” but would still aim to “prevent any new major aggression”. It’s hard to see how they do both. The rules-of-engagement, force disposition, roles and missions, and size of any multinational force deployed to Ukraine are, of course, not yet finalised. But it seems these troops will be in the rear with no real time peace monitoring or peace enforcement mandate. It seems equally improbable Russia would agree to European and other naval vessels to approach Russian occupied littoral to undertake mine clearing.
How any ceasefire violations by Russians, or any future aggression, might conceivably be monitored remains unclear but presumably this will take place. Without such monitoring ceasefires are so fragile as to be meaningless. If the reassurance force will be watching for Russian breaches, which is oneway to make sense of Macron’s words, it is only reasonable to expect that Russia would need to be assured that there were no violations on the part of the Ukrainians. The Russians could seek forces from a friendly third nation to monitor the ceasefire from their side, perhaps inviting North Korean, Iranian, or Chinese to mirror the role of the reassurance force. This would certainly pose an insurmountable obstacle for the Ukrainians. Yet any agreement would need to recognise the interests of both parties.
It is very difficult to see how the Europeans can live up to the expectation that the Ukrainians have that this reassurance force will result in any security guarantees. Guarantee, as understood in English and French, has the meaning of a formal or legal, generally written or documented, commitment to perform some act if another act occurs. There is of course no chance that the assurances the Europeans are offering will be legislated or take on treaty status. In major European states like France, Germany, Spain, and Poland, the governments are already in difficult political positions, and combined with a worsening economic outlook and a tariff struggle with America, their commitments don’t rise to the level of a guarantee. As voters drift away from the centre over time the political support and public willingness to sacrifice for Ukraine is sure to wane.
So all this posturing of the coalition of the willing can only logically impede any progress towards a ceasefire and/or peace agreement by now adding to the already irresolvable issues over sovereignty and land. Already Ukraine’s maximalist demands would include the prosecution of President Putin and his colleagues for war crimes, the imposition of reparations, and confiscation of the frozen Russian assets in western banks and their application to rebuilding Ukraine. Russia’s maximalist demands would include the return of the frozen assets, considerable if not total sanctions relief, the exclusion of ‘illegitimate’ and anti-Russian forces from Ukrainian politics, the abandonment of Ukraine’s ambitions for NATO membership, and recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the occupied oblasts.
The Europeans know all this. So why have they gone down this path that, despite their claims to desire an end to the conflict, will only drag out the war and increase the prospects of Ukraine looking like a failed state, an incarnation of the Weimar Republic. This can only be interpreted as performative politics intended to impress one man. Although that’s hard to process. The thought that the Europeans would embark on the farce de réassurance knowing it would make finding common ground on which to base negotiations between Ukraine and Russia immeasurably more difficult, and therefore deliberately extend the war, in order to encourage President trump to remain more deeply engaged in Europe’s security? This would be a deeply cynical and dishonourable piece of statecraft.
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