China already has significant geopolitical and economic clout in Asia and beyond – especially through the Belt and Road Initiative, its massive investment program in global infrastructure, and commercial development. Economic decoupling is not in the offing; China is far too integrated into the global economy. So is there a “China strategy” that would reunite the US and its democratic partners?
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Preparing for a 3°C warmer future: the ideological shift and institutions Australia will need
Collective emission reduction efforts of nations will not avoid 3 degrees centigrade global warming by the end of the century. Therefore, national adaptation actions will need to prepare for the worse than expected scale and impact of climate change. Earlier ideological assumptions about governments will have to give way to policies that are interventionist and systemic.
Read moreEuropean Union and China agree investment deal
European Union and China leaders agreed a business investment deal on Wednesday, 30 December 2020, the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. The EU hopes the deal will give European companies greater access to Chinese markets, and helping redress what Europe sees as unbalanced economic ties with China.
Read moreWhat’s the role of hydrogen in the clean energy transition? (UCS)
In energy transition conversations, hydrogen is having a bit of a moment. But, as ever, there’s a catch. So here, from the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Julie McNamara, an introduction to hydrogen as a decarbonisation pathway, to help differentiate between the promise and potential and the distractions and misdirections.
Read moreChina to be world’s biggest economy by 2028, five years earlier than expected
A report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (United Kingdom), released on 26 December 2020, has forecast that China will overtake the United States to become the world’s biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated, due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Read moreChina-Australia decoupling? ASPI float a hydrogen balloon
It will become increasingly the case that if Australia doesn’t address the demands of the next economy, its prosperity, and therefore its security, will decline. In this context the development of an Australian clean steel industry using green hydrogen, proposed by ASPI’s Michael Shoebridge, looks enticing. But is it feasible of itself, let alone as part of decoupling from China’s economy? Or is it a distraction from the real economic and security issues facing Australia?
Read moreThe deceit of deterrence: a bankrupt strategic justification for defence expenditure
One of Australia’s three key strategic objectives is to “deter actions against our interests”, although what this means in practice is largely unexamined. Yet the concept of deterrence is frequently used to justify acquiring expensive, high-tech weapons platforms and systems. But what does the government envisage the submarines, new naval vessels, F-35s, and variety of long-range missiles will deter? In Australia’s strategic circumstances, what part can deterrence play in its strategic policy?
Read moreThe Indo-Pacific is a distraction: economics not geography is the strategic arena
Australia’s fixation on the South China Sea, and policy-makers’ indulgence of the fatuous Indo-Pacific concept, is obscuring the major developments in the strategic environment and misdirecting the public debate. While military power will continue to play a role in international relations, the fierce competition over the technologies and materials crucial to the next economy should be preoccupying strategic policy-makers.
Read moreChina-Australia relations: it’s not as simple as ABC
There are many commentators with strong and legitimate concerns about China. The relationship between Australia and China is a very important one and it warrants being debated openly and vigorously. But when those with privileged access to the public square confuse name calling and assertion with rational argument, it is important to point this out. The recent ABC article As Australia’s relationship with China deteriorates beyond repair, we need to find new trade partners is a case in point.
Read moreUS-Japan alliance: experts point to America’s strategic reliance on Japan in Asia
Richard Armitage and Joseph Nye, long time pillars of the Washington national security policy elite, are the lead authors of a new report from CSIS on the US-Japan alliance, with a suggested “new agenda for the challenges and opportunities on the horizon”. It is deeply refreshing to see them acknowledge, albeit somewhat wistfully, that there is no going back to US hegemony. To exercise influence the US will have to partner with other states.
Read moreThe US-Japan alliance in 2020: an equal alliance with a global agenda (Armitage-Nye)
Richard Armitage and Joseph Nye have led a team to produce a new “bipartisan Armitage-Nye” report on the state of the US-Japan alliance, seen as critical to addressing both regional and global challenges. On the question of China and US strategy in Asia, the report is both entirely predictable and refreshingly surprising.
Read moreFrance’s President Macron defends unconditional arms sales to Egypt
France has welcomed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Paris. At a joint media conference President Macron told reporters that “matters of defence and economic cooperation” with Egypt would not be conditional on questions of disagreements on human rights, disappointing those who had been calling for France to take a stronger position with Egypt on rights issues.
Read moreUS-led global arms sales grew 8.5% in 2019, Australia top host of foreign arms companies (SIPRI)
New data from SIPRI’s Arms Industry Database shows that arms sales by the world’s 25 largest arms companies totalled US$361 billion in 2019, an 8.5 per cent increase over 2018. The top five arms companies were all based in the United States: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and General Dynamics. Outside of North America and Western Europe, the largest number of foreign arms company entities are hosted by Australia (38).
Read moreStrategic capitalism, strategic autonomy and Australia
The Biden administration will be unable to avoid continuing America’s fierce competition with China. It also will find that, like-minded and democratic or not, most states will have distinct national interests and will seek to act autonomously, dancing between the feet of the battling giants, trying to extract or leverage the best price for their allegiance and alignment in the Chinese-US competition. With a deep past investment in the US hegemony, Australia is awkwardly placed as this new age of strategic capitalism unfolds.
Read moreUS confirms withdrawal of troops from Somalia by early 2021
The Pentagon has announced that by early 2021 it will withdraw about 700 troops from Somalia, where the US has been involved for an extended period in fighting a low-intensity battle against the local al Qaeda affiliate, al-Shabaab.
Read moreAustralia, US formally partner on SCIFiRE hypersonic missile program
On 1 December 2020, Australia announced a formal agreement to partner with the United States on the development and testing of “hypersonic cruise missile prototypes”.
Read moreThis time it’s the end of democracy: Fukuyama and big-tech
How to Save Democracy From Technology: Ending Big Tech’s Information Monopoly puts forward a confused and inadequate set of arguments concerning the “gigantic Internet platforms Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Twitter”. Its focus on yesterday’s technological challenges while tomorrow’s threats are almost upon us is disappointing, and misses where the real threat to democracy and individual freedom is beginning to take form.
Read moreChina and Brexit drive the UK’s Indo-Pacific ‘tilt’ (Bill Hayton)
Chatham House’s Bill Hayton looks at the UK’s ’tilt’ to the Indo-Pacific – involving trade, military presence and diplomatic efforts, concluding that the overall effect is likely to embed the UK in the Indo-Pacific as a valuable partner for those countries which value a free and open international order.
Read moreSouth Korea, China agree on early Xi visit, North Korea talks
Reuters reports that China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, has visited South Korea, and met with South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, and foreign minister, Kang Kyung-wha.
Read moreStrategic capitalism, geoeconomics and Australia’s choices
As market-based economic globalisation gives way to a system of state relations based largely on strategic capitalism, the Australian government seems to be using an outdated operating system. The demise of the multi-lateral, rules-based and open world will pose problems that demand imagination, innovation and deft and agile policy and diplomacy. In this environment Australia has a difficult course to chart.
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