Analysis and comment – Page 3

An alliance of democracies: with the US or for the US?

2 September 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called for an “a new grouping of like-minded nations, a new alliance of democracies”. By bringing together its European and Asian allies under American leadership, the US hopes to bring them into line with its own China strategy. But an “alliance of democracies” would not really be an alliance with the US – it would be an alliance for the US, to further the American interest, to which the interests of its allies would inevitably end up being subordinated.

The challenges of the post-pandemic agenda (Jean Pisani-Ferry)

1 September 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

There is a growing possibility that the COVID-19 crisis will mark the end of the growth model born four decades ago with the Reagan-Thatcher revolution, China’s embrace of capitalism, and the demise of the Soviet Union. The small government, free-market template suddenly looks terribly outdated. Instead of regarding growth as the ultimate solution to inequality, advanced economies will need to tackle distributional issues head on. It is to be hoped that they will be spared the convulsions that often accompany structural and policy changes of such magnitude.

Why is the South China Sea such a hotly contested region? (Greg Austin)

30 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Australia’s statement on the South China Sea in July 2020 was its strongest rejection yet of China’s claims to the waters. It did not represent a new position on the legal issues, but marked a fresh determination to confront China over the maritime disputes. The United States is also pressuring Australia to join its freedom of navigation exercises in the sea — a move likely to further anger China. As tensions in the South China Sea mount, it’s important to understand how this dispute began and what international law says about freedom of navigation and competing maritime claims in the waters.

Why is ‘values’ the new buzzword in Australian foreign policy? (Benjamin Reilly)

23 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

In international affairs, words are bullets, according to an old diplomatic saying. If so, Australia in recent years has begun firing new ammunition. ‘Values’, a word seldom used in the past, has now assumed a central place in our foreign policy rhetoric. Speeches, press conferences and policy statements vibrate with the V-word. If values are now the coin of our foreign policy realm, we will have to start walking the talk.

China’s newfound intimacy with Russia is a strategic blind spot for Australia (Alexey D Muraviev)

23 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

We have become very China-centric in our strategic thinking in Australia — and this could be to our detriment. Beijing’s deepening defence ties with Russia remain a blind spot in our public debate. China and Russia have grown much closer in recent years, especially when it comes to security and defence. Instead of taking a serious look at the ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ between Russia and China, we largely play down what unites these two major nuclear powers and the world’s most potent militaries outside the United States.

Defence spending and plans: will the pandemic take its toll? (IISS)

23 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19, Strategy, defence and security

That the pandemic will have an impact on defence ministries is beyond doubt. One way or another, national governments and defence ministries will have to grapple with the immediate and extended effects of the pandemic on their countries’ military spending and resource allocation.

Demystifying Australia’s South China Sea stance (Sam Bateman)

19 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

Despite Australia and the United States having no direct interest in continental shelf claims in the South China Sea, both have recently joined the debate. Both appear to have sought maximum publicity for their submissions – which have been reported as providing the basis for confronting and false media headlines, such as ‘Australia says China’s claims to disputed islands are ‘invalid’ and are not consistent with UN convention on law of the sea’. In fact there is nothing new in the Australian or US statements despite suggestions that they reflect new aggressive stances against China, and it is not clear why Australia and the United States made statements at this particular point in time other than to add another dimension to the intensifying rivalry with China.

The impact of COVID-19 on critical global food supply chains and food security (SIPRI)

17 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Climate and environment, COVID-19

By the end of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic risks doubling the number of people who face acute hunger from around 135 million to around 265 million people. The pandemic may have a more severe impact on the number of hungry than the global food crisis of 2007–2008, potentially constituting a ‘hunger pandemic’.

Is Australia’s security policy an expensive failure? (Mark Beeson)

7 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

With the rise of “nontraditional threats”, people are actually feeling increasingly insecure. But “to keep our nation safe and protect our way of life for future generations” the Australian government is promising to spend $270 billion on defence. Even if we weren’t facing the prospect of plunging into the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, this sort of spending and the thinking that underpins it looks highly questionable and unlikely to achieve its central goals.

Australia-China July monthly wrap up | On being ‘very different countries’ – AUSMIN and China’s rise (Australia-China Relations Institute)

4 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

ACRI’s Elena Collinson and James Laurenceson present a useful summary and analysis of major developments in July 2020. The authors’ observations about Australia-China and Australia-US trade issues are a welcome contribution to an area often long on rhetoric and short on analysis. Professor James Curran sees reason for optimism in an assessment of the state of the Australia-China relationship in light of the comments of Australian ministers Payne and Reynolds at the AUSMIN 2020 talks in Washington. But has Australia done enough to distance itself from the US’s confrontational stance with China? Or will Australia-China high-level channels of communication “continue to stagnate”?

No longer a middle power: Australia’s strategy in the 21st century (Andrew Carr)

3 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Published in September 2019 by the French Institute of International Relations, this article by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre’s Andrew Carr has increased relevance given Australia’s recent 2020 Defence Strategic Update and the ramping up of its critical comments on China. Andrew Carr punctures the pretensions that infuse Australia’s formal strategic and defence policy documents and found in a lot of political statements. He paints a realistic and sobering picture of the relative decline in military and economic influence facing Australia.

How COVID-19 will reshape Indo-Pacific security (The Diplomat)

31 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

This article is one of a number of pieces circulating that usefully starts to ponder the effect COVID-19 will have on strategic relations in the Indo-Pacific. It presents one of the more comprehensive lists of possible effects. The narrow focus of the article, however, means two major results of the pandemic, a change in the relativities in economic power and a possible change in the US Administration, are not clearly factored into the analysis. With regard to the question of impact of Covid-19 on military readiness, there may be room for greater caution; it is yet to be seen if the worst predictions about a shift in the military balance because of readiness issues will eventuate.

It’s one thing to build war fighting capability, it’s another to build industrial capability (Graeme Dunk)

30 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Analysis suggests that the proportion of contracts awarded to firms that are both Australian operated and owned is low, and that work done by Australian-controlled companies has been increasingly subcontracted to foreign-owned prime contractors. The Australian part of Australia’s defence industry is small, and getting smaller. This subordinate role has important implications for the health of Australia’s industry and national resilience.

Welcome back to Kissinger’s world (Michael Hirsh)

24 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

An impressive article by Michael Hirsh, which manages to be: a review of Barry Gewen’s “incisive new intellectual history of Kissinger and his times”, The Inevitability of Tragedy; an insightful enumeration of some key social, economic and strategic challenges the world currently faces; and a useful commentary on the US-China rivalry and the accompanying geostrategic shifts.

With China-US tensions on the rise, does Australia need a new defence strategy? (Greg Raymond)

14 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Author: Greg Raymond | The Conversation (Australia) | 22 November 2018 What strategic developments did the 2016 Defence White Paper not anticipate? Do any of these point to a need to radically change Australia’s defence posture? Which of these equate to risks that increased defence spending can obviate? Although written in late 2018, it’s arguable that this article’s observations and judgements have stood the test of time, perhaps taking on greater resonance in the wake of the

Europe’s ‘pushback’ on China: recommendations for EU-China relations (Institut Montaigne)

6 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

A detailed, informative and comprehensive policy paper covering the span of the current state of EU-China relations as the growing economic power of China, and Europe’s awkward situation in the US-China trade war, puts enormous pressure on the EU to find a way to manage relations with China.

Forward to the past? New-old theatres of Russia’s international projection

5 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Under President Putin Russian foreign policy is more energetic than at anytime since the end of the Soviet Union. In Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and elsewhere, Russia’s influence has grown. While the US has declared Russia a strategic adversary, its behaviour and policies are of even deeper direct relevance to Europe. Understanding Russia’s motivations is of growing importance.

The pandemic and the limits of realism (Seth A Johnston)

3 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

Realism is sometimes regarded as the foundational international relations theory. In this thoughtful piece, Seth A Johnston notes that realist scholars of international relations see the coronavirus pandemic as helping to validate the realist school of thought. But, asks Johnston, has the pandemic also exposed realism’s shortcomings as a source for successful policy?

Who’s first wins? International crisis response to COVID-19 (EUISS)

29 June 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19, Democracy and governance

Is the pandemic not just a test for healthcare systems around the world, but an international contest for which country has the best political system? Did democracies really respond to the Covid-19 pandemic less swiftly than authoritarian systems – and if the determining factor is not the political system, what are the key elements in crisis response?

Predation and predators in the post-alliance era

29 June 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

In this interesting article Heisbourg frames his speculation about the transformation taking place the international environment in terms of a shift from a structured system founded on US-sponsored liberal values to a more dog-eat-dog anarchic situation: in this new “post alliance” arrangement dominated by sovereignism, transactionalism, and authoritarianism, the US, China and Russia will be the top predators.