Alliances – Page 3 – Here and there

A tale of two Americas: Australia’s foreign policy choices post-pandemic

14 April 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

Writing in ASPI’s The Strategist, Michael Shoebridge rightly points out that how the US rebounds from the COVID-19 crisis will be important. For better or worse Australia is tightly bound with the US economically and strategically. But Shoebridge’s arguments posit an excessively flattering picture of the US and an incomplete view of its history – at a time when it is crucial that Australian foreign and strategic policy-makers have a realistic and unvarnished understanding of how the US might approach the post-pandemic world.

Deterrence and defense in times of COVID-19 – Europe’s political choices

10 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

This German Council on Foreign Relations policy brief suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic could see Europe heading for a much deeper recession than the economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis. The brief argues that governments can act to mitigate the effect on national defense sectors, but that to safeguard political and defense priorities, the EU and NATO States need to act jointly and decisively.

Transatlantic defence cooperation in the Trump era

1 March 2020 Online editor Research and reports, Strategy, defence and security

An element of strategic divergence means the US and Europe are currently “not quite watching the same movie on the two sides of the Atlantic”, but there is hope that transatlantic defence industrial cooperation can function better if trade-offs are accepted and we have a shared view of the value of working together as allies.

What do the Chinese think of the United States-Australian alliance?

27 February 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, Strategy, defence and security

In recent articles, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Peter Jennings has lauded the Australian government’s decision to refurbish and expand the Royal Australian Air Force Base Tindal as ‘a giant strategic step forward’ – a project that ‘will deliver a firmer deterrent posture and a closer alliance with the US’. Does China really view Australia’s defence alliance with the United States ‘with a mix of envy and puzzlement’, as he suggests?

Is the United States of America a normal country?

25 February 2020 Mike Scrafton By Mike Scrafton, Global

Remarks at the Munich Security Conference by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper are full of unconscious irony.

If ‘the United States’ was substituted for every reference to ‘China’ in each address not much of their coherence would be lost. Can the two premier US leaders of foreign and strategic policy genuinely be so naïve about the current impact of America’s policies on the world order, multilateralism, alliances, and international security?

Turkey’s nationalist course: Implications for the US-Turkish strategic partnership

19 February 2020 Online editor Research and reports, Strategy, defence and security

RAND researchers assess the key challenges confronting the US-Turkish partnership over the coming decade, finding that while US-Turkish relations will remain volatile as Turkey seeks to balance relations with traditional allies and Eurasian neighbors, a major breach can be avoided.

The warning that wasn’t: Robert Gottliebsen’s warning to the Australian nation on the Future Submarines

19 February 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

Robert Gottliebsen (‘The Australian’ 12 Feb 2020) claims to have found risks associated with the procurement strategy for Australia’s Future Submarine Program which ‘may even ultimately put the [ANZUS] alliance at risk’. Is there any basis to this claim? Or, more broadly, any evidence that Defence is not managing the project risks effectively?

2020 Munich Security Conference: the feeling of ‘Westlessness’ examined

12 February 2020 Online editor Research and reports

The Munich Security Report 2020 sheds light on “Westlessness” – a widespread feeling of uneasiness and restlessness in the face of increasing uncertainty about the enduring purpose of the West. The Report provides an overview of major security policy challenges and features insightful data and analyses.

NATO, the Middle East and the policy vacuum

14 January 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

Statements from NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and President Trump reveal a divergence in the strategic interests of the Europeans and the US. If real alliances only work when there’s a clear alignment of strategic objectives, Stoltenberg’s comments are telling. Australia’s foreign and strategic policy needs to reflect a more sophisticated appreciation of the geopolitical shifts taking place.