Richard Armitage and Joseph Nye, long time pillars of the Washington national security policy elite, are the lead authors of a new report from CSIS on the US-Japan alliance, with a suggested “new agenda for the challenges and opportunities on the horizon”. It is deeply refreshing to see them acknowledge, albeit somewhat wistfully, that there is no going back to US hegemony. To exercise influence the US will have to partner with other states.
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Richard Armitage and Joseph Nye have led a team to produce a new “bipartisan Armitage-Nye” report on the state of the US-Japan alliance, seen as critical to addressing both regional and global challenges. On the question of China and US strategy in Asia, the report is both entirely predictable and refreshingly surprising.
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The first high-level dialogue between China and Japan since Yoshihide Suga succeeded Shinzo Abe as Japan’s Prime Minister in September have taken place in Tpkyo, with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Japanese counterpart, Toshimitsu Motegi discussing maritime tensions over disputed islands in the East China Sea, trade and the Covid-19 pandemic response.
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Japan and Australia reached a new agreement on defence cooperation on Tuesday [17 November 2020]. The agreement, agreed in-principle by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, allows Japanese and Australian troops to visit each other’s countries and conduct training and joint operations.
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The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECP) agreement: Fifteen Asia-Pacific economies have signed what could become the world’s largest free trade agreement, covering nearly a third of the global population and about 30% of its global gross domestic product.
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Even in what are almost certainly its last weeks, there is no sign yet that the Trump administration will lessen its efforts to make a lasting mark on relations between China and the US and its Asia-Pacific partners and allies.
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It is reported that the world’s largest trade pact involving 15 countries in the Asia Pacific – which account for 29% of global gross domestic product – is expected to be signed during a virtual leaders summit to be held on 15 November 2020.
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Reuters reports that on 2 November “India, the United States, Japan and Australia began their largest joint naval exercises in over a decade”, “seen as part of efforts to balance China’s vast military and economic power in the region”.
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US-Japan-Australia trilateral naval exercises, Australia invited to join the 2020 Malabar naval exercise, and the ‘Quad’ (US-Japan-India-Australia) ministerial meeting held 6 October 2020.
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Reuters reports that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said on Monday [19 October 2020] that Tokyo opposes any steps to raise tension in the South China Sea, and that disputes should be resolved through peaceful means.
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Grand strategies are the territory of great powers, while other states see their strategic independence incorporated into another state’s grand strategy. The comfort that Australia embraced while enclosed in an American grand strategy can’t last, and hard choices lie ahead. In the shifting power balance, Australia will need to recover its autonomy.
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