US President Biden and Russia’s President Putin spoke by telephone on 26 January 2021 and agreed to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years. It is the last remaining nonproliferation agreement between the US and Russia.
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The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was ratified on 24 October 2020 by a 50th country, Honduras, and is now expected to enter into force in January 2021. The Treaty bans the use, development, production, testing, stationing, stockpiling and threat of use of such weapons. The nuclear-armed countries are not signatories to the Treaty.
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The nuclear threat to North Asia, and possibly the US homeland, will remain one of the most intractable problems for the US president.
It is highly unlikely that in a second term Trump would step back from his maximum pressure sanctions strategy, and there is little evidence that this approach is anything other than counterproductive.
There are some indications that a Democrat victory in the presidential election could lead to a change in direction for US policy, which might offer greater opportunities for a pragmatic diplomatic solution.
For North Asian security, the best hope for a partial denuclearisation and a lessening of the security threat probably lies in Trump’s defeat.
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Against the backdrop of US withdrawal from the Intermediate Range Treaty, and increasing pessimism about prospects for the renewal of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in 2021, this Brief identifies the stakes for the EU and outlines how it could achieve the internal consensus required to make a positive impact in the 10th NPT Review Conference (April-May 2020).
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