Strategy – Here and there

Republicans push for Mexican-American war: Don’t rule it out

30 August 2023 Mike Scrafton Global

As it stands, the leading Republican US presidential hopefuls, and much of their base, are supportive of military action against Mexico. What would it mean if America invaded Mexico in 2025?

All over bar the shouting: the inevitability of a submarine farce

1 March 2023 Mike Scrafton AUKUS

All the signs point to there being no prospect of a sudden upwelling of responsible, considered, and prudent policymaking from Australia’s political class. Without a mature public debate, Australia’s AUKUS submarine farce has been scripted.

Time to talk about time and the AUKUS submarines

18 February 2023 Mike Scrafton AUKUS

The AUKUS submarines are not expected to get wet until more than 30 years from now, and then to operate until at least the late 21st century. Whatever the government’s thinking is, it cannot centre on a genuine belief that the project addresses Australia’s current pressing strategic needs.

An AUKUS ménage à trois

8 February 2023 Mike Scrafton AUKUS

The latest teaser from the Australian government is the suggestion that the AUKUS submarines could be a brand new common design delivered via ‘an integrated industrial capacity across the three countries’, with ‘the three countries…building different sections of the submarines’. Alarm bells should be ringing.

All pathways to AUKUS submarines sub-optimal

14 January 2023 Mike Scrafton AUKUS

AUKUS handed the US largely unfettered military access to Northern Australia. In return, Australia became entangled in an undefined process that may or may not deliver nuclear-powered submarines by mid-century. All roads ahead look hard for this project.

America’s shiny submarine lure reels in Australia’s sovereignty

10 December 2022 Mike Scrafton AUKUS

Arguably, the Americans have brilliantly played successive Australian governments by casting the shiny lure of nuclear submarines out somewhere in the distant future and reeling in control of Australia’s defence policy.

Extent of former US officials’ role in AUKUS submarines decision called into question

24 October 2022 Mike Scrafton AUKUS

Abandoning plans to buy French designed conventionally powered submarines in favour of US or UK supplied nuclear powered submarines has come under sustained criticism on the grounds of strategy, cost, and practicality. Now the involvement of former US officials with potential conflicts of interest gives rise to the possibility that the AUKUS submarines decision itself was tainted.

US National Security Strategy: dogma for a misconceived crusade

18 October 2022 Mike Scrafton Global

The new US National Security Strategy sets out the preconditions for a secure and prosperous future for all – with China meekly deferring to American intent on shaping the international order in line with American interests and values. What could go wrong?

Australia’s strategic debate must avoid pop psychology and Game of Thrones thinking

24 September 2022 Mike Scrafton Australian focus

Can non-expert distanced observers meaningfully deduce the psychological and moral make up of national leaders? Is a nuclear umbrella a vestige of an outmoded nuclear framework, from an earlier strategic era, without contemporary relevance? Some responses to Professor Paul Dibb.

Warriors, war and Mike Pezzullo’s ANZAC Day message

8 May 2021 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, Strategy, defence and security

What are the ‘drums of war’ that senior Australian public servant, Michael Pezzullo, can hear? His words have been understood as echoing anti-China warmongering found among some commentators and hinting strongly at the current hysteria around Taiwan. So how did the Australian government deal with a senior public servant stepping into the political limelight in this way?