Russia will not be defeated, weakened, or isolated in the way previously assumed by the Europeans. Without a rapid reappraisal of its Biden-era strategic policy choices, Europe may be set on an irreversible course to a very dangerous place.
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To stop the war in Ukraine the Europeans will need to untie two Gordian knots: an intractable problem of security guarantees, with risk of a stand-off between Europe and Eurasia emerging, and seemingly irresolvable competing territorial claims.
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In a bold stroke of strategic genius in pursuit of peace in Ukraine, the Europeans – well, France and the United Kingdom – have decided on a course of action that will ensure the war’s continuance. How can the observer make sense of this?
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The crime of aggression is treated seriously in international law. Political leaders have a moral and legal obligation to do likewise. There can’t be room for political hypocrisy if international law is to mean anything.
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If control of the Eurasian land mass is seen as the key determinant in great power relations, the war in Ukraine gives a sharper focus to longer term geopolitical shifts, foreshadowing the retreat of the American sphere and America’s decline as a global power.
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If he wins, Donald Trump says he could bring about the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine between his election and inauguration. Trump’s peacemaking could trigger a series of seismic geopolitical shocks. Even NATO’s survival might be in doubt.
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At some point there must come a crisis. The G7 and their allies and partners will either have to cease their support for Ukraine as the toll and costs become too great, or decide that the defeat of Russia is of such importance to them collectively that they engage militarily in the conflict.
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Past experience suggests that the postwar outcome in Ukraine could be a destabilised and failing state. Win, lose or stalemate, the postwar environment in Ukraine is likely to pose significant challenges for the EU and NATO.
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The tanks might be a sensible tactical move, although that needs to be seen, but it is a poor strategic and geopolitical step. The Ukrainians have little reason to negotiate now. The NATO allies and partners are locked in and Ukraine’s strategic objective has become the objective of the Europeans and North Americans.
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Putin’s forces might not progress far beyond the Dnieper River. And yet the invasion will reshape the world in which the next Australian government operates.
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Russia’s President Putin rightly bears the greatest moral and legal opprobrium for the appalling death toll, atrocities, and destruction in Ukraine. But once the war reaches its conclusion, retrospectively the contribution of others will come under closer scrutiny.
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