The US National Security Strategy declares that an American goal should be “to help Europe correct its current trajectory”. With the US taking the lead in post-war reconstruction, Ukraine’s expected entry into the EU provides a ready-made Trojan horse.
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Publicly-expressed opinions of current senior military officers are rare in democracies, having the potential to carry outsized weight, to shape public opinion, and to constrain government policy-making. The current trend is disturbing.
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Political figures giving expression to outraged public feelings in the aftermath of tragedy may speak of incomprehensible ‘acts of evil’, but policy-makers should not treat the shooting at Bondi as the work of evil; it is not possible to formulate a policy to eradicate evil.
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Threads of former dark episodes in America’s past are woven through its 2025 National Security Strategy. Unmistakable echoes of anti-democratic elitism, race theories, and eugenics. America’s allies should be alarmed at the vision promised to be imposed by strength and direct interference.
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Russia will not be defeated, weakened, or isolated in the way previously assumed by the Europeans. Without a rapid reappraisal of its Biden-era strategic policy choices, Europe may be set on an irreversible course to a very dangerous place.
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Australians have lived unquestioningly in the warm embrace of the 1951 ANZUS treaty. But ANZUS may no longer be fit for purpose. The America of 1951 no longer exists, and the things that made ANZUS workable are disappearing. The moment for Australia to disconnect is here.
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To stop the war in Ukraine the Europeans will need to untie two Gordian knots: an intractable problem of security guarantees, with risk of a stand-off between Europe and Eurasia emerging, and seemingly irresolvable competing territorial claims.
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A sense of America’s leadership in the Indo Pacific region or reliance on alliances was totally absent from Trump’s UNGA address. Allies can expect the forthcoming US National Security Strategy to be far from the traditional product.
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In a bold stroke of strategic genius in pursuit of peace in Ukraine, the Europeans – well, France and the United Kingdom – have decided on a course of action that will ensure the war’s continuance. How can the observer make sense of this?
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The crime of aggression is treated seriously in international law. Political leaders have a moral and legal obligation to do likewise. There can’t be room for political hypocrisy if international law is to mean anything.
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If control of the Eurasian land mass is seen as the key determinant in great power relations, the war in Ukraine gives a sharper focus to longer term geopolitical shifts, foreshadowing the retreat of the American sphere and America’s decline as a global power.
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Don’t expect to hear Trump going on about the Indo-Pacific. His designs on Canada and Greenland signal a shift in prime strategic focus to access to mineral and other resources in the Arctic. And with it a willingness to collude with strong players to divide up the resources.
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A common conception of sovereignty is the essential foundation of the modern state and international law. Trump’s contrarian understanding of sovereignty, evident in actions during his first term, could have far more damaging consequences in his second.
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If he wins, Donald Trump says he could bring about the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine between his election and inauguration. Trump’s peacemaking could trigger a series of seismic geopolitical shocks. Even NATO’s survival might be in doubt.
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Electoral success for new, rising parties in a democracy is now a threat to democracy. While securing only around a third of the vote by parties who have traditionally dominated is enough to give them an unquestioned right to govern.
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As Trump’s prospects of electoral success seem to fade, the question becomes whether as president Kamala Harris would carve out a different foreign policy path from the failing Biden Doctrine.
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By 2028, the next US administration may need to decide between adherence to the AUKUS deal as structured, or ensuring the operational viability of America’s own nuclear submarine force. Is there potential for the US to withdraw from AUKUS?
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The theocratic elements of Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership unmistakably resonate with Trump’s and Vance’s views. In these key aspects of the policy program, Trump’s efforts to disown Project 2025 must be seen as disingenuous. The implications should not be ignored.
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Longing for a simpler time when neither market capitalism, nor the values of the American individualist, materialist culture, were questioned, and when American preeminence was unchallenged, Trump’s impulse is to withdraw and close the gates. For Australia the repercussions could be profound.
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Will the ‘pivotal generation’ meet its moral obligation to act on timely greenhouse gas emission elimination, and urgent, effective and equitable climate change mitigation and adaptation actions? Cheap energy will not be the only preoccupation of future generations or the only yardstick by which they judge the actions of the current generation.
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