How can the flood of crocodile tears from western governments for the Palestinians, without ever condemning America as the arsenal of Israel’s war on women and children, be explained? What logic explains the weak remonstrations against Israel and the failure to see war crimes in Ukraine and in Gaza as indistinguishable?
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Biden’s fanaticism might be a threat to peace everywhere
President Biden’s regular paeans to America as “the greatest nation in history” need to be a warning to Australian policy-makers that a second term for him could be worse for Australia than the election of Trump. Biden’s obsession with the challenge of China is not just geopolitics. It’s a fanaticism that makes war conceivable, possibly inevitable.
Read moreBiden’s Valley Forge myth-making divides America and boosts Trump
Avoiding a Trump presidency requires Biden finding some compromise or accommodation with alienated voters. Instead he has opted for division; his camp are the real patriots, just like Trump calls his followers real Americans. The other side are the implacable enemy, and when the election is over, rather than increased unity, for many the result will be seen as a terrible, maybe existential, defeat.
Read more“O tempora. O mores.” Will the American republic survive the continuing corrosion of political norms?
The norms, customs, and conventions that have been the foundations of American republicanism are dissolving. Perhaps more precipitously than in the Roman Republic, liberal democracy seems to be passing in America.
Read moreWestern leaders must acknowledge Israel’s rights are not untrammelled
Israel’s right to defend itself is not untrammelled and by implying that it is, political leaders are undermining the authority of international law. Instead, they should be drawing heavily on it to halt the carnage in Gaza and the colonisation of the West Bank.
Read moreAmerica: the frailty of the hegemon revealed
The turning point at which the American hegemony began to irretrievably unravel will retrospectively be judged as the reaction of the Biden Administration to the Gaza crisis. Amid the pomp of an Official Visit to Washington did the Australian Prime Minister sense the enormity of the moment? As he paid homage to the hegemon, could he feel the facade crumbling to reveal America’s slipping power?
Read moreAre we paying enough attention to Trump’s Gleichschaltung-like ‘Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership’?
A significant number of interlinked think tanks, organisations, and individuals are engaged in extensive preparations for Trump’s return – and for reform of the ‘administrative state’ and every aspect of American government policy. The program of the reactionary forces in America is as radical as that of the interwar fascists.
Read moreIlliberalism rising: Will a post-liberal America threaten the international order?
Social change creates the space for revolutionary new thoughts. A rejection of liberalism and democracy is evident – even in nations that have been liberal democracies the longest. Trump could prove an ill-disguised Trojan horse for a vanguard of illiberal crusaders in pursuit of a post liberal America.
Read moreRepublicans push for Mexican-American war: Don’t rule it out
As it stands, the leading Republican US presidential hopefuls, and much of their base, are supportive of military action against Mexico. What would it mean if America invaded Mexico in 2025?
Read moreThe zealot, the disrupter, and the ideologue: America’s presidential choices
Biden, Trump, or DeSantis; the zealot, the disrupter, or the ideologue. Trump is Trump. Biden’s failing democracy crusade is already fracturing the world into opposing camps. Where would a DeSantis presidency lead?
Read morePostwar Ukraine will pose the hardest problems
Past experience suggests that the postwar outcome in Ukraine could be a destabilised and failing state. Win, lose or stalemate, the postwar environment in Ukraine is likely to pose significant challenges for the EU and NATO.
Read more‘Shared values’ on show in Jerusalem
Apparently Palestine is a place that lies beyond the norms and standards of international law. In 2022 a UN Special Rapporteur referred to “gross violations of international law… by the occupying Power, Israel” – and called the extended Israeli occupation “an unjustified use of force and an act of aggression… amounting to a war crime under the Rome Statute”. While Israel is effectively a rogue nation, it is the hypocrisy with which the Americans (and others) can abandon the Palestinians that is astounding.
Read moreTanks for Ukraine won’t bring war-ending negotiations any closer
The tanks might be a sensible tactical move, although that needs to be seen, but it is a poor strategic and geopolitical step. The Ukrainians have little reason to negotiate now. The NATO allies and partners are locked in and Ukraine’s strategic objective has become the objective of the Europeans and North Americans.
Read morePost-liberal, post-democratic and authoritarian. Is that America’s future?
A group with the potential to capture the state appears to be forming in the US – coalescing around a set of illiberal and authoritarian ideas. Australian observers, commentators, and policy-makers need to watch this movement closely.
Read moreAfter 2024 America could be a less reliable ally than under Trump
Formidable illiberal forces are emerging in the US, which, in power, could have profound consequences for America domestically and for America’s position in the world. After the 2024 US presidential election, America’s reliability, predictability, and compatibility as an ally could even be less than under Trump.
Read moreUS National Security Strategy: dogma for a misconceived crusade
The new US National Security Strategy sets out the preconditions for a secure and prosperous future for all – with China meekly deferring to American intent on shaping the international order in line with American interests and values. What could go wrong?
Read moreAmerica’s proposed Taiwan Policy Act could be a game-changing act of provocation
The US’s proposed Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, if approved, would bring the prospect of war in the Asia-Pacific closer. The draft legislation foreshadows radical changes in US policy, amounting to abandonment of the one-China policy and de facto recognition of Taiwan as a state. What does this mean for Australia?
Read moreWould Australian defence of Taiwan amount to the crime of aggression?
The people of Taiwan are in a deeply unenviable position. But international law is neutral over political systems, and Taiwan’s democracy gives it no special right to secede. Does advocating for this make Australia a revisionist state?
Read moreThe difference between international law and America’s ‘rules-based order’
Restricting its foreign policy activities within the norms and processes of international law doesn’t sit well with the struggling hegemon, and the US has had to invent the imaginary and vague regime of a ‘rules-based global order’. Successive Australia governments seem prepared to go to war for a figment of the hegemon’s strategic imagination.
Read moreWar over the rules-based order doesn’t make sense
Going to war over the ‘rules-based order’ seems unremarkable to our leaders. Its nature, and how it would be preserved by conflict, seems to be intuitively perceived by them. Yet, the elevation of the rules-based order to a status so sacrosanct that the destruction of civilisation is justified in its defence demands investigation.
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