Australians have lived unquestioningly in the warm embrace of the 1951 ANZUS treaty. But ANZUS may no longer be fit for purpose. The America of 1951 no longer exists, and the things that made ANZUS workable are disappearing. The moment for Australia to disconnect is here.
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To stop the war in Ukraine the Europeans will need to untie two Gordian knots: an intractable problem of security guarantees, with risk of a stand-off between Europe and Eurasia emerging, and seemingly irresolvable competing territorial claims.
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A sense of America’s leadership in the Indo Pacific region or reliance on alliances was totally absent from Trump’s UNGA address. Allies can expect the forthcoming US National Security Strategy to be far from the traditional product.
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In a bold stroke of strategic genius in pursuit of peace in Ukraine, the Europeans – well, France and the United Kingdom – have decided on a course of action that will ensure the war’s continuance. How can the observer make sense of this?
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The crime of aggression is treated seriously in international law. Political leaders have a moral and legal obligation to do likewise. There can’t be room for political hypocrisy if international law is to mean anything.
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If control of the Eurasian land mass is seen as the key determinant in great power relations, the war in Ukraine gives a sharper focus to longer term geopolitical shifts, foreshadowing the retreat of the American sphere and America’s decline as a global power.
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Don’t expect to hear Trump going on about the Indo-Pacific. His designs on Canada and Greenland signal a shift in prime strategic focus to access to mineral and other resources in the Arctic. And with it a willingness to collude with strong players to divide up the resources.
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A common conception of sovereignty is the essential foundation of the modern state and international law. Trump’s contrarian understanding of sovereignty, evident in actions during his first term, could have far more damaging consequences in his second.
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If he wins, Donald Trump says he could bring about the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine between his election and inauguration. Trump’s peacemaking could trigger a series of seismic geopolitical shocks. Even NATO’s survival might be in doubt.
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Electoral success for new, rising parties in a democracy is now a threat to democracy. While securing only around a third of the vote by parties who have traditionally dominated is enough to give them an unquestioned right to govern.
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As Trump’s prospects of electoral success seem to fade, the question becomes whether as president Kamala Harris would carve out a different foreign policy path from the failing Biden Doctrine.
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By 2028, the next US administration may need to decide between adherence to the AUKUS deal as structured, or ensuring the operational viability of America’s own nuclear submarine force. Is there potential for the US to withdraw from AUKUS?
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The theocratic elements of Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership unmistakably resonate with Trump’s and Vance’s views. In these key aspects of the policy program, Trump’s efforts to disown Project 2025 must be seen as disingenuous. The implications should not be ignored.
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Longing for a simpler time when neither market capitalism, nor the values of the American individualist, materialist culture, were questioned, and when American preeminence was unchallenged, Trump’s impulse is to withdraw and close the gates. For Australia the repercussions could be profound.
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Will the ‘pivotal generation’ meet its moral obligation to act on timely greenhouse gas emission elimination, and urgent, effective and equitable climate change mitigation and adaptation actions? Cheap energy will not be the only preoccupation of future generations or the only yardstick by which they judge the actions of the current generation.
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At some point there must come a crisis. The G7 and their allies and partners will either have to cease their support for Ukraine as the toll and costs become too great, or decide that the defeat of Russia is of such importance to them collectively that they engage militarily in the conflict.
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Over and over, generations of political leaders have fallen for the delusion that death and destruction bring a resolution to political problems, and people from many nations have bravely sacrificed themselves, whatever the casus belli. To remember their sacrifices is right; but to distort that memory to foster more war is abhorrent.
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How long can Australian politicians continue with the pretence that the American alliance aligns with the nation’s interests? Trump or Biden? It doesn’t really matter except for determining the path of America’s decline into illiberalism. ANZUS must be exited, but the impetus will have to come from voters.
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At this time of rising living costs, economic uncertainty, and impending climate disaster, subsidising the US and UK submarine construction industrial bases is the obvious priority for the Australian government. With massive taxpayer funds flowing through the government’s hands on the basis of media releases, are there yet to be revealed details that will explain to the taxpayer how these contributions aren’t just tributes?
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Australia’s future maritime warfare capability is now to include the ‘Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant Fleet’. Requiring, like the AUKUS submarines, ambitious naval acquisition and construction programs with long lead-times before delivery, serious questions are raised about how the ELSCF responds to assessments of Australia’s strategic circumstances – and of the extent to which it would be just another contribution by Australian taxpayers to US military forces.
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