Publicly-expressed opinions of current senior military officers are rare in democracies, having the potential to carry outsized weight, to shape public opinion, and to constrain government policy-making. The current trend is disturbing.
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Category: By Mike Scrafton
Responding to Bondi: can evil be addressed by government policy?
Political figures giving expression to outraged public feelings in the aftermath of tragedy may speak of incomprehensible ‘acts of evil’, but policy-makers should not treat the shooting at Bondi as the work of evil; it is not possible to formulate a policy to eradicate evil.
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On its current trajectory, no settlement outcome in Ukraine bodes well for Europe
Russia will not be defeated, weakened, or isolated in the way previously assumed by the Europeans. Without a rapid reappraisal of its Biden-era strategic policy choices, Europe may be set on an irreversible course to a very dangerous place.
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It’s the company you keep – Rules of Engagement and the future of ANZUS
Australians have lived unquestioningly in the warm embrace of the 1951 ANZUS treaty. But ANZUS may no longer be fit for purpose. The America of 1951 no longer exists, and the things that made ANZUS workable are disappearing. The moment for Australia to disconnect is here.
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The Gordian knots – security guarantees and borders for Ukraine
To stop the war in Ukraine the Europeans will need to untie two Gordian knots: an intractable problem of security guarantees, with risk of a stand-off between Europe and Eurasia emerging, and seemingly irresolvable competing territorial claims.
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Trump’s romantic nationalism and the direction of US foreign policy
A sense of America’s leadership in the Indo Pacific region or reliance on alliances was totally absent from Trump’s UNGA address. Allies can expect the forthcoming US National Security Strategy to be far from the traditional product.
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A European farce de réassurance
In a bold stroke of strategic genius in pursuit of peace in Ukraine, the Europeans – well, France and the United Kingdom – have decided on a course of action that will ensure the war’s continuance. How can the observer make sense of this?
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Hypocrisy undermines international law
The crime of aggression is treated seriously in international law. Political leaders have a moral and legal obligation to do likewise. There can’t be room for political hypocrisy if international law is to mean anything.
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In the Rimlands America’s hegemony is receding
If control of the Eurasian land mass is seen as the key determinant in great power relations, the war in Ukraine gives a sharper focus to longer term geopolitical shifts, foreshadowing the retreat of the American sphere and America’s decline as a global power.
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Trump’s pre-modern approach to Sovereignty must be resisted
A common conception of sovereignty is the essential foundation of the modern state and international law. Trump’s contrarian understanding of sovereignty, evident in actions during his first term, could have far more damaging consequences in his second.
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Trump’s quick deal with Putin could reshape the global order
If he wins, Donald Trump says he could bring about the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine between his election and inauguration. Trump’s peacemaking could trigger a series of seismic geopolitical shocks. Even NATO’s survival might be in doubt.
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How democratic are the Western democracies?
Electoral success for new, rising parties in a democracy is now a threat to democracy. While securing only around a third of the vote by parties who have traditionally dominated is enough to give them an unquestioned right to govern.
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Would Harris adopt the militarism of the failed Biden Doctrine?
As Trump’s prospects of electoral success seem to fade, the question becomes whether as president Kamala Harris would carve out a different foreign policy path from the failing Biden Doctrine.
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Will America use the AUKUS ‘get-out’ clauses?
By 2028, the next US administration may need to decide between adherence to the AUKUS deal as structured, or ensuring the operational viability of America’s own nuclear submarine force. Is there potential for the US to withdraw from AUKUS?
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Trump and Vance’s theocratic republic of America
The theocratic elements of Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership unmistakably resonate with Trump’s and Vance’s views. In these key aspects of the policy program, Trump’s efforts to disown Project 2025 must be seen as disingenuous. The implications should not be ignored.
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Beyond the stockade – is Australia ready for US isolationism?
Longing for a simpler time when neither market capitalism, nor the values of the American individualist, materialist culture, were questioned, and when American preeminence was unchallenged, Trump’s impulse is to withdraw and close the gates. For Australia the repercussions could be profound.
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Let’s not forget our obligations to future generations
Will the ‘pivotal generation’ meet its moral obligation to act on timely greenhouse gas emission elimination, and urgent, effective and equitable climate change mitigation and adaptation actions? Cheap energy will not be the only preoccupation of future generations or the only yardstick by which they judge the actions of the current generation.
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The aimlessness of the G7 on Ukraine only delays the inevitable
At some point there must come a crisis. The G7 and their allies and partners will either have to cease their support for Ukraine as the toll and costs become too great, or decide that the defeat of Russia is of such importance to them collectively that they engage militarily in the conflict.
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Biden’s distorted D-Day history seeks to rally others to his endless wars
Over and over, generations of political leaders have fallen for the delusion that death and destruction bring a resolution to political problems, and people from many nations have bravely sacrificed themselves, whatever the casus belli. To remember their sacrifices is right; but to distort that memory to foster more war is abhorrent.
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Three compelling reasons to exit ANZUS
How long can Australian politicians continue with the pretence that the American alliance aligns with the nation’s interests? Trump or Biden? It doesn’t really matter except for determining the path of America’s decline into illiberalism. ANZUS must be exited, but the impetus will have to come from voters.
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