Mike Scrafton – Page 9 – Here and there

Thuringia and European democracy after Merkel

20 February 2020 Mike Scrafton By Mike Scrafton, Global

In German politics, a strong party taboo was broken when Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party joined with the centrist Free Democrat Party leader in Thuringia, Thomas Kemmerich, to form a government with the support of the right wing Alternative for Germany. The breaking of the taboo might reflect the passing of the generation of Angela Merkel, shaped by the complex social, political and economic legacy of the Nazi past, a divided Germany, post-Soviet national reunification and the emergence of the European Union.

The warning that wasn’t: Robert Gottliebsen’s warning to the Australian nation on the Future Submarines

19 February 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

Robert Gottliebsen (‘The Australian’ 12 Feb 2020) claims to have found risks associated with the procurement strategy for Australia’s Future Submarine Program which ‘may even ultimately put the [ANZUS] alliance at risk’. Is there any basis to this claim? Or, more broadly, any evidence that Defence is not managing the project risks effectively?

Traps, Trump and Thucydides: challenging Allison’s concept of a ‘Thucydides’ Trap’

14 February 2020 Mike Scrafton By Mike Scrafton, Global

Harvard academic Graham Allison finds in Thucydides’ ‘The History of the Peloponnesian War’, some near universal law of international relations where war between established and rising great powers is close to inevitable – the ‘Thucydides’ Trap’. But are there different lessons to be drawn from analysis of the Peloponnesian War?

A critique of Australia’s SEA1000 Future Submarine project – from the outside

8 February 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

How did the Australian government decide to approve the SEA1000 project? That these decisions are always hidden from wider view by secrecy classifications and need-to-know protocols must be accepted, as must the reality that pragmatic consideration will be given to other important matters like alliance and industry policy. But nonetheless, Tthe decision doesn’t easily stand up to scrutiny.

Democracy & ignorance: climate deniers and climate believers

5 February 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

It may be unrealistic to expect the normal citizen to become an expert on climate change, but excuses don’t wash for politicians – they should be well-informed, and government policies should be firmly-rooted in the best evidence and science.

Failed policies based on marketing undermine our political institutions, and Australian Prime Minister Morrison’s 29 January 2020 address to the National Press Club doesn’t cut it.

Australia’s ‘future submarines’ & future war

4 February 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

Australia’s SEA1000 Future Submarine project is back in the news following a 60% increase in the project’s cost to AUD 80 billion, and a report by the Australian National Audit Office that identified flaws in the acquisition process Mike asks the broader question of the strategic assessment that underpins an investment of this magnitude over an extended, 30-year timeframe. What sort of capability will be produced by the project, and what sort of conflict would the capability serve?

Mnuchin, Thunberg, Economics and Science

30 January 2020 Mike Scrafton By Mike Scrafton, Climate crisis

The comments of US Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin concerning Greta Thunberg were meant to be droll. However, they reveal a serious and dangerous cognitive dissonance affecting much of the world’s political elite.

Claiming, as Mnuchin seems to, that economics is the sole determinant of policy action is not simply uninformed, it is a mind-set that will bring about disaster.

Australia must adapt to a new climate reality

21 January 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

The future international environment is now coming into focus. It doesn’t look promising. Government approaches to defence and human security will need to undergo a radical reassessment if they are to ameliorate the adverse effects. Global warming and population growth will be the weft and warp.

Responding to recent suggestions regarding the development of a greater capacity for government to respond to climate-related events, this article suggests that dealing with the impacts of global warming must not become sidelined by narrowly defining it as a national security issue.

Instead, advisors and governments need a greater capability to understand global warming science and to effectively translate it into institutions, actions and public understanding.

Australia-China relations and the logic of conventional deterrence

19 January 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, Strategy, defence and security

To think Australia’s military strength is ever going to be sufficient to deter China from attacking is a fantasy. Rather, the need is for Australia to avoid situations in which it is likely to be confronted by overwhelming military force – a project that requires hard and continuous diplomatic work in building up shared understandings, channels of communications and robust relationships.

US National Security and Ukraine: What’s the connection?

19 January 2020 Mike Scrafton Global, Ukraine

Witnesses appearing before the US House of Representatives’ impeachment hearings have connected Russian aggression in Ukraine with US national security. But just how is Ukraine important to the national security of the United States? It may be prudent to have clarity around national interests and to avoid shorthand terms that tend to discourage analysis and articulation of those interests, such as ‘national security’.

NATO, the Middle East and the policy vacuum

14 January 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

Statements from NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and President Trump reveal a divergence in the strategic interests of the Europeans and the US. If real alliances only work when there’s a clear alignment of strategic objectives, Stoltenberg’s comments are telling. Australia’s foreign and strategic policy needs to reflect a more sophisticated appreciation of the geopolitical shifts taking place.

How good are (Australian) Royal Commissions?

14 January 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

Is Australian Prime Minister Morrison’s call for a Royal Commission on matters related to the recent bushfires just a smokescreen, an excuse for avoiding real action, or is it a genuine attempt to get a body of evidence and a report on which the government could build a holistic strategy for addressing global warming, which should be applauded?

Geopolitics and the re-election of Donald Trump

12 January 2020 Mike Scrafton By Mike Scrafton, Global

The biggest question in geopolitics is: will President Trump be re-elected? More than any previous presidential election, the 2020 election could presage a very dangerous era in world politics, making the presidential election the most important geopolitical event this year. However, the American presidential election will be determined by domestic issues that swirl around a collection of policy issues as well as identity and values.

Crisis and the Transformation of Government Administration: responding to the Thodey Review

9 January 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

The Thodey Review of the Australian Public Service is set against a backdrop of four simultaneous and momentous crises before which modern democracies seem impotent; global warming, population growth, wealth inequality, and a dangerous geostrategic shift. Is the APS as reformed by the Thodey Review going to be up to the task of supporting ministers facing this level of overwhelming uncertainty and risk management?

Extremism and race: slaying the phantom

27 March 2019 Mike Scrafton Australian focus

The conviction that racial differences account for behaviours and values in the real world, although erroneous, is strongly held by some. Singling out the racism of extremists as being exceptional risks obscuring the authorising environment in which they operate.

The Nationhood Power: a senior public servant’s radical and disturbing view on Executive government in Australia

4 February 2019 Mike Scrafton Australian focus

We should pay close attention when Michael Pezzullo connects together a dubious ‘social contract’, some muddled history, superficial legal references, and an almost mystical connection between the Executive and the ‘common good’ with some as yet poorly understood ‘nationhood power.’

Mike Pezzullo: from hobbit to Hobbes

25 October 2017 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, From the archive

According to Mike Pezzullo, Australians are like ‘comfortable hobbits’ – blissfully unaware of the grave dangers that exist beyond their borders and ill-prepared for the ‘emerging … “dark universe”’ of globalised ‘terror, crime, and indeed evil’. Pezzullo’s proposed response is radical and revolutionary and alarming.