The latest BTI Transformation Index shows that the rule of law and political freedoms are being eroded in an increasing number of democracies, and the number of people who are governed poorly and less democratically is increasing worldwide. The BTI ratings for quality of democracy, market economy and governance have dropped to their lowest level.
Read moreCategory: Reports and commentary
Predation and predators in the post-alliance era
In this interesting article Heisbourg frames his speculation about the transformation taking place the international environment in terms of a shift from a structured system founded on US-sponsored liberal values to a more dog-eat-dog anarchic situation: in this new “post alliance” arrangement dominated by sovereignism, transactionalism, and authoritarianism, the US, China and Russia will be the top predators.
Read moreSecuritisation – turning problems into threats (Allan Behm)
One of the more disturbing tendencies of modern governments is ‘securitisation’ – transforming policy problems into threats, thereby elevating them into the national security domain. In many western democracies security is accorded pre-eminent status among the various domains of public policy, creating the preconditions for securitisation to elevate the levels of state intervention in a way that displays, emphasises and enhances the power of the state and its control over its citizens.
Read moreThe strategic consequences of the coronavirus crisis
Bruno Tertrais proposes a provocative list of trends might be exacerbated or accelerated by the COVID-19 crisis. The list begs the tantalising question of how each of these trends might impact on the progress and direction of the others. How might the decline of globalisation affect the rise in authoritarianism and the risk of conflict? How might sovereignism and isolationism retard responses to the ecological and climate crises of the Anthropocene?
Read moreSerbian democracy: a case of state capture?
The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) has produced a disturbing report on what it describes as the “deliberate political undertaking in which political actors use the consequences (both real and imagined) of the previous government as justification for the complete capture of the state’s institutions” in Serbia. At a time when the EU is struggling to live up to its core political values, the Serbian government’s commitment to the rule of law and separation
Read moreLessons from a global crisis: coronavirus, the international order and the future of the EU (Pol Morillas)
After COVID, the world may once again be flat and hyperconnected. Alternatively, coronavirus may be a turning point in the era of globalisation.
Read moreAnticipating a new US foreign policy
Author Lauren Schwartz | Friedrich Ebert Stiftung | Published 21 April 2020 Lauren Schwartz considers what US foreign policy might look like under a Democrat president – after Trump, and after coronavirus. The paper canvasses “30 years of ambivalent foreign policy” – from 1989 through to 2020, and a Trump administration prepared to signal its willingness and ability to adopt a more competitive approach towards its rivals, militarily, economically and diplomatically. A new American foreign
Read moreGlobal dissatisfaction with democracy at record high
According to a report released in January 2020 by the Bennett Institute (Cambridge), many large democracies are now at their highest-ever recorded level for democratic dissatisfaction, including the UK, US, Brazil, Mexico and Australia. Many large democracies are now at their highest-ever recorded level for democratic dissatisfaction, including the UK, US, Brazil, Mexico and Australia A report released in January 2020 by the new Centre for the Future of Democracy at the Bennett Institute, University
Read moreUS-China strategic rivalry: causes, trajectories, and implications
An insightful paper that seeks a strategy for Europe ‘to escape the bipolar logic that demands it choose between the American and Chinese economic/technological spheres’. The recommendations for Europe should resonate equally in Australia – a country already caught up in the global competition for influence, and likely to be subject to ‘increased pressure from Washington on its allies to take a clear position on the sharpening US-China conflict and clearly side with the United States’.
Read moreCoronavirus is a dress rehearsal for what awaits us if governments continue to ignore science (John Hewson)
Former Australian politician, Dr John Hewson, now chair of Australia’s Commission for the Human Future and a professorial fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University, warns that ‘the coronavirus pandemic should be seen as a dress rehearsal for what awaits us if we continue to ignore the laws of science, the physical world and the demands of several catastrophic threats such as climate change’.
Read moreSonia Sodha: Nudge theory is a poor substitute for hard science in matters of life and death
How appropriate is behavioural economics as a basis for making public policy? Should it be called ‘science’? What does the evidence tell us?
Read moreThe Future of the Undersea Deterrent: A Global Survey
This publication brings together insights of leading international scholars and next-generation expertsto produce a comprehensive and authoritative reference examining the interplay of strategic issues, including nuclear strategy and deterrence; maritime operational issues, including ASW; and technology issues, including new and disruptive technologies and potential game-changers in relation to deterrence.
Read moreThe Return: Russia and the security landscape of Northeast Asia (Bobo Lo)
While China – and the potential for conflict in Northeast Asia – is prominent in discussion amongst Australian strategists, often overlooked is the fact that Northeast Asia has emerged as a critical theater of Russian foreign policy in recent years.
Read morePerspectives on Nuclear Deterrence (Chatham House)
This collection of essays explores, from the perspectives of eight experts, four areas of deterrence theory and policymaking: the underlying assumptions that shape deterrence practice; the enduring value of extended deterrence; the impact of emerging technologies; and the ‘blurring’ of the lines between conventional and nuclear weapons.
Read moreYuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus
Yuval Noah Harari thoughtfully examines the issues around the rush to put in place technological surveillance-based responses to COVID-19 pandemic management, and governments’ pivot to nationalistic solutions to problems which are essentially global in nature.
Read moreIn times of coronavirus and climate change, we must rethink national security
New security issues presented by global warming, and now, pandemics, constitute existential threats. They go to the heart of national security, showing that the scope of national security policy needs to transcend traditional defence and law enforcement models by comprehending climate change, human security against pandemics, environmental degradation, food security, water shortages and refugee flows – to identify just a few issues.
Read moreDavid McCoy: Faith in coronavirus modelling is no substitute for sound political judgment
David McCoy makes some important observations on the relationship between the scientific and non-scientific elements of COVID-19 decision-making; the inherent limitations of modelling – particularly when dealing with a novel virus about little is known.
Read moreEvgeny Morozov: COVID-19 and the relationship of capitalism, neoliberalism and technology’s ‘solutionism’
In government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, Evgeny Morozov sees a ‘feast of solutionism’ being unleashed. [W]e can see two distinct strands of solutionism in government responses to the pandemic. “Progressive solutionists” propose that timely, app-based exposure to the right information could “nudge” people to behave in the public interest, while “punitive solutionists”, by contrast, want to use surveillance infrastructure to monitor and manage daily activities. The risk, he argues, is that the pandemic will supercharge the solutionist state, … creating an excuse to fill the political vacuum with anti-democratic practices.
Read moreDeterrence and defense in times of COVID-19 – Europe’s political choices
This German Council on Foreign Relations policy brief suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic could see Europe heading for a much deeper recession than the economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis. The brief argues that governments can act to mitigate the effect on national defense sectors, but that to safeguard political and defense priorities, the EU and NATO States need to act jointly and decisively.
Read moreDavid Runciman: Coronavirus has not suspended politics – it has revealed the nature of power
In an article in The Guardian, David Runciman shows how the pandemic has removed “one layer of political life to reveal something more raw underneath”. He writes, “As Hobbes knew, to exercise political rule is to have the power of life and death over citizens. The only reason we would possibly give anyone that power is because we believe it is the price we pay for our collective safety. But it also means that we
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