Analysis and comment – Page 4

Securitisation – turning problems into threats (Allan Behm)

29 June 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

One of the more disturbing tendencies of modern governments is ‘securitisation’ – transforming policy problems into threats, thereby elevating them into the national security domain. In many western democracies security is accorded pre-eminent status among the various domains of public policy, creating the preconditions for securitisation to elevate the levels of state intervention in a way that displays, emphasises and enhances the power of the state and its control over its citizens.

The strategic consequences of the coronavirus crisis

26 June 2020 Mike Scrafton Analysis and comment, Global

Bruno Tertrais proposes a provocative list of trends might be exacerbated or accelerated by the COVID-19 crisis. The list begs the tantalising question of how each of these trends might impact on the progress and direction of the others. How might the decline of globalisation affect the rise in authoritarianism and the risk of conflict? How might sovereignism and isolationism retard responses to the ecological and climate crises of the Anthropocene?

Serbian democracy: a case of state capture?

25 June 2020 Mike Scrafton Analysis and comment

The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) has produced a disturbing report on what it describes as the “deliberate political undertaking in which political actors use the consequences (both real and imagined) of the previous government as justification for the complete capture of the state’s institutions” in Serbia. At a time when the EU is struggling to live up to its core political values, the Serbian government’s commitment to the rule of law and separation

Lessons from a global crisis: coronavirus, the international order and the future of the EU (Pol Morillas)

20 May 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

After COVID, the world may once again be flat and hyperconnected. Alternatively, coronavirus may be a turning point in the era of globalisation.

Anticipating a new US foreign policy

15 May 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

Author Lauren Schwartz | Friedrich Ebert Stiftung | Published 21 April 2020 Lauren Schwartz considers what US foreign policy might look like under a Democrat president – after Trump, and after coronavirus. The paper canvasses “30 years of ambivalent foreign policy” – from 1989 through to 2020, and a Trump administration prepared to signal its willingness and ability to adopt a more competitive approach towards its rivals, militarily, economically and diplomatically. A new American foreign

Coronavirus is a dress rehearsal for what awaits us if governments continue to ignore science (John Hewson)

5 May 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

Former Australian politician, Dr John Hewson, now chair of Australia’s Commission for the Human Future and a professorial fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University, warns that ‘the coronavirus pandemic should be seen as a dress rehearsal for what awaits us if we continue to ignore the laws of science, the physical world and the demands of several catastrophic threats such as climate change’.

Sonia Sodha: Nudge theory is a poor substitute for hard science in matters of life and death

5 May 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

How appropriate is behavioural economics as a basis for making public policy? Should it be called ‘science’? What does the evidence tell us?

The Return: Russia and the security landscape of Northeast Asia (Bobo Lo)

30 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

While China – and the potential for conflict in Northeast Asia – is prominent in discussion amongst Australian strategists, often overlooked is the fact that Northeast Asia has emerged as a critical theater of Russian foreign policy in recent years.

Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence (Chatham House)

30 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

This collection of essays explores, from the perspectives of eight experts, four areas of deterrence theory and policymaking: the underlying assumptions that shape deterrence practice; the enduring value of extended deterrence; the impact of emerging technologies; and the ‘blurring’ of the lines between conventional and nuclear weapons.

Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus

27 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

Yuval Noah Harari thoughtfully examines the issues around the rush to put in place technological surveillance-based responses to COVID-19 pandemic management, and governments’ pivot to nationalistic solutions to problems which are essentially global in nature.

In times of coronavirus and climate change, we must rethink national security

21 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

New security issues presented by global warming, and now, pandemics, constitute existential threats. They go to the heart of national security, showing that the scope of national security policy needs to transcend traditional defence and law enforcement models by comprehending climate change, human security against pandemics, environmental degradation, food security, water shortages and refugee flows – to identify just a few issues.

David McCoy: Faith in coronavirus modelling is no substitute for sound political judgment

18 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

David McCoy makes some important observations on the relationship between the scientific and non-scientific elements of COVID-19 decision-making; the inherent limitations of modelling – particularly when dealing with a novel virus about little is known.

Evgeny Morozov: COVID-19 and the relationship of capitalism, neoliberalism and technology’s ‘solutionism’

16 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19, Democracy and governance

In government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, Evgeny Morozov sees a ‘feast of solutionism’ being unleashed. [W]e can see two distinct strands of solutionism in government responses to the pandemic. “Progressive solutionists” propose that timely, app-based exposure to the right information could “nudge” people to behave in the public interest, while “punitive solutionists”, by contrast, want to use surveillance infrastructure to monitor and manage daily activities. The risk, he argues, is that the pandemic will supercharge the solutionist state, … creating an excuse to fill the political vacuum with anti-democratic practices.

Deterrence and defense in times of COVID-19 – Europe’s political choices

10 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

This German Council on Foreign Relations policy brief suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic could see Europe heading for a much deeper recession than the economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis. The brief argues that governments can act to mitigate the effect on national defense sectors, but that to safeguard political and defense priorities, the EU and NATO States need to act jointly and decisively.

David Runciman: Coronavirus has not suspended politics – it has revealed the nature of power

5 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

In an article in The Guardian, David Runciman shows how the pandemic has removed “one layer of political life to reveal something more raw underneath”. He writes, “As Hobbes knew, to exercise political rule is to have the power of life and death over citizens. The only reason we would possibly give anyone that power is because we believe it is the price we pay for our collective safety. But it also means that we

Populism, Nationalism and Illiberalism – a challenge for democracy and civil society

1 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

LIberal aspects of democracy, in particular civil liberties and the rule of law, are essential to a democratic system worthy of this name. Majority decisions taken in illiberal contexts are not a sufficient basis for political action: there is no such thing as an “illiberal democracy”.

EU Parliament Think Tank: The Economy and the Coronavirus

1 April 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

This paper provides a summary of the recent Standard & Poor’s (S&P) economic forecast for the euro area (assessing the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak); some recent analyses of the macroeconomic effects of the coronavirus; and some policy recommendations made in the public domain to mitigate these negative effects. The S&P summary On Thursday, 26 March, the credit-rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) published an economic forecast for the euro area and the UK, assessing

Jamie Shea: The coronavirus – what could be the strategic implications?

31 March 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment

Jamie Shea identifies potential strategic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. A retreat back to the nation state? Increased geopolitical rivalries, defence budgets under pressure and reduced capacity to deter Russia and China? The end of globalisation? The rise of the western surveillance state?

The coronavirus ego trap: individual countries trying to go it alone is totally counterproductive

24 March 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

In a Deutsche Welle opinion piece published 23 March 2020, Frank Hofmann calls for recognition by European and international leaders that multilateral crises cannot be resolved unilaterally; for political leaders to realise that they have an obligation to reverse the relapse into unilateral answers to the coronavirus crisis; and for resistance to the pursuit of policies of discrediting the work of international institutions by nationalists and populists throughout the world. He notes that there was

EFF: Governments haven’t shown location surveillance would help contain COVID-19

23 March 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19

The Electronic Frontier Foundation argues that before the public allows their governments to use new dragnet location surveillance powers to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, governments must explain to the public how these systems would be effective in stopping the spread of COVID-19.