2020 Defence Strategic Update

The deceit of deterrence: a bankrupt strategic justification for defence expenditure

23 December 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus

One of Australia’s three key strategic objectives is to “deter actions against our interests”, although what this means in practice is largely unexamined. Yet the concept of deterrence is frequently used to justify acquiring expensive, high-tech weapons platforms and systems. But what does the government envisage the submarines, new naval vessels, F-35s, and variety of long-range missiles will deter? In Australia’s strategic circumstances, what part can deterrence play in its strategic policy?

The metrics of strategic competition with China don’t add up

19 November 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus

The recent Belfer Center report by RAAF Group Captain Jason Begley, Winning Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific, offers important insights into the strategic thinking of the Australian military. The author’s analysis of the strategic competition with China in which the US and Australia have engaged far surpasses the level of the policy arguments offered in the Australian government’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update.

Out of shape: Australia’s lack of strategic influence

1 September 2020 Mike Scrafton By Mike Scrafton, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy, International relations, Strategy, defence and security

It seems clear from recent surveys that the Australian government is overestimating its influence in ‘the immediate region’ and underestimating the capacity of the ASEAN states, in particular, to recognise their own strategic interests. The strategic objectives set out in the 2020 Defence Strategic Update rest on the assumptions that Australia will be able to ‘shape’ strategic perceptions in the region, and that this can best be done while acting in close association with the US. Are the foundations of Australia’s strategic logic sound?

Australian strategic policy: why we need a robust public debate

7 August 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, Strategy, defence and security

Only a select group of voices is heard most often and most loudly on the subject of Australia’s strategic policy. This creates a false sense of certainty around what is a speculative and inexact policy area. The policy choices, and the connection between strategic policy and force structure, deserve to be intensively examined and validated through public debate – not least of all because the opportunity cost of defence investment is huge.

The rationale for Australia’s 2020 Force Structure Plan: A 2040 war?

15 July 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

There is a mismatch between the urgent need to respond to the supposed recent deterioration in Australia’s strategic circumstances, and the timeframe for investments proposed in Australia’s recently-released 2020 Force Structure Plan. Bringing capabilities into the ADF inventory within the next 20 years doesn’t seem to be the priority for government, despite the apparent deterioration in the strategic environment.

A replay of the 1930s: Fact or fearmongering?

13 July 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

The Australian Prime Minister compares the current strategic environment to “the existential threat we faced when the global and regional order collapsed in the 1930s and 1940s”. If he believes current global circumstances are comparable to those that preceded the Second World War, the response in the 2020 Defence Strategic Update is inadequate. If he doesn’t, his references amount to fear-mongering.

Australia’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update: no talk of war here

8 July 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton

There is little to quarrel with in Hugh White’s assessment of the uncertainties in East Asia. His counsel to the government on the way forward for strategic policy, on the other hand, is less satisfactory.
To embark on a major expansion of Australia’s military forces is not the way to protect Australia.