Can non-expert distanced observers meaningfully deduce the psychological and moral make up of national leaders? Is a nuclear umbrella a vestige of an outmoded nuclear framework, from an earlier strategic era, without contemporary relevance? Some responses to Professor Paul Dibb.
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Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison might have gone to Europe with the Indo-Pacific region “is the epicentre of renewed strategic competition” mantra on his lips, but the NATO communique reflects the reality that it is Russia, not China, that fills Europe’s strategic horizon.
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Despite expectations in some quarters that the Americans would stamp their world view and priorities on the G7, it is clear from how the communique deals with Russia and China that the European concern for strategic autonomy was influential in its drafting. President Biden’s hopes for a strong position against China did not materialise as Russia received greater attention.
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The US has imposed a range of sanctions on Russia, including curbs to its sovereign debt market, to punish it for allegedly interfering in last year’s U.S. election, cyber hacking, bullying Ukraine and other alleged malign actions. Russia denies the allegations, and considers the sanctions hostile steps.
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Russia is to host on Thursday [18 March 2021] the first of three international conferences aimed at jump-starting a stalled Afghanistan peace process ahead of a May 1 deadline for the final withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops from the country.
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Turkey, Russia and Qatar are making a joint attempt to promote a political solution to Syria’s 10-year conflict. The foreign ministers of the three countries held talks in Doha on Thursday, 11 March 2021.
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It’s reported that Russia and China signed an agreement on Tuesday [9 March 2021] to set up an international lunar research station. The project aims to promote international cooperation and offer equal access to any nation that wants to take part.
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This Egmont Security Policy Brief notes that for many Western governments, there still is a lot of hesitation and bewilderment on how to deal with Russia. A first step in defining a coherent policy vis-a-vis Russia, is trying to understand the motivation and objectives of Russian foreign policy, as well as its weaknesses.
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It is reported that Iranian forces have launched a two-day navy exercise with Russia in the northern part of the Indian Ocean, with India also joining in and China expected to take part. Exercises include shooting at sea and air targets and liberating hijacked ships, as well as search and rescue and anti-piracy operations.
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US President Biden and Russia’s President Putin spoke by telephone on 26 January 2021 and agreed to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years. It is the last remaining nonproliferation agreement between the US and Russia.
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New data from SIPRI’s Arms Industry Database shows that arms sales by the world’s 25 largest arms companies totalled US$361 billion in 2019, an 8.5 per cent increase over 2018. The top five arms companies were all based in the United States: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and General Dynamics. Outside of North America and Western Europe, the largest number of foreign arms company entities are hosted by Australia (38).
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The United States has officially withdrawn from the Open Skies treaty, with effect 22 November 2020, blaming the withdrawal on Russia’s transgression of the Treaty.
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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Monday [16 November 2020] approved the creation of a Russian naval facility in Sudan capable of mooring nuclear-powered surface vessels, clearing the way for Moscow’s first substantial military foothold in Africa since the period of the former Soviet Union.
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In comments made on 23 October 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reported to have suggested that the role of the United States had waned, along with that of Britain and France, while Beijing and Berlin – in terms of political and economic weight – were heading for superpower status. He reportedly said that Washington could no longer lay claim to exceptionalism and questioned why it would want to.
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The coronavirus pandemic has thrown a harsh spotlight on the state of global governance. Faced with the greatest emergency since the Second World War, nations have regressed into narrow self-interest. The concept of a rules-based international order has been stripped of meaning, while liberalism faces its greatest crisis in decades. In this Lowy Institute publication, the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI)’s Bobo Lo argues that it’s time to rethink global governance and its priorities.
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The proximity and size of China, and the belligerence of the US toward China, has occluded the view of Russia among Australia strategic planners. While Russia poses no credible direct threat to Australia, it could be a key player in a conflict between the US and China. Once Russia is factored into the analysis of the situation in East Asia, the global consequences of a war are magnified and the recklessness of contemplating participating in such a conflict becomes even clearer.
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We have become very China-centric in our strategic thinking in Australia — and this could be to our detriment. Beijing’s deepening defence ties with Russia remain a blind spot in our public debate. China and Russia have grown much closer in recent years, especially when it comes to security and defence. Instead of taking a serious look at the ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ between Russia and China, we largely play down what unites these two major nuclear powers and the world’s most potent militaries outside the United States.
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Under President Putin Russian foreign policy is more energetic than at anytime since the end of the Soviet Union. In Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and elsewhere, Russia’s influence has grown. While the US has declared Russia a strategic adversary, its behaviour and policies are of even deeper direct relevance to Europe. Understanding Russia’s motivations is of growing importance.
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In this interesting article Heisbourg frames his speculation about the transformation taking place the international environment in terms of a shift from a structured system founded on US-sponsored liberal values to a more dog-eat-dog anarchic situation: in this new “post alliance” arrangement dominated by sovereignism, transactionalism, and authoritarianism, the US, China and Russia will be the top predators.
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While China – and the potential for conflict in Northeast Asia – is prominent in discussion amongst Australian strategists, often overlooked is the fact that Northeast Asia has emerged as a critical theater of Russian foreign policy in recent years.
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