International relations – Page 4

Why is the South China Sea such a hotly contested region? (Greg Austin)

30 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Australia’s statement on the South China Sea in July 2020 was its strongest rejection yet of China’s claims to the waters. It did not represent a new position on the legal issues, but marked a fresh determination to confront China over the maritime disputes. The United States is also pressuring Australia to join its freedom of navigation exercises in the sea — a move likely to further anger China. As tensions in the South China Sea mount, it’s important to understand how this dispute began and what international law says about freedom of navigation and competing maritime claims in the waters.

A bigger canvas: Russia, China and Australia’s strategic policy

26 August 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, Strategy, defence and security

The proximity and size of China, and the belligerence of the US toward China, has occluded the view of Russia among Australia strategic planners. While Russia poses no credible direct threat to Australia, it could be a key player in a conflict between the US and China. Once Russia is factored into the analysis of the situation in East Asia, the global consequences of a war are magnified and the recklessness of contemplating participating in such a conflict becomes even clearer.

Why is ‘values’ the new buzzword in Australian foreign policy? (Benjamin Reilly)

23 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

In international affairs, words are bullets, according to an old diplomatic saying. If so, Australia in recent years has begun firing new ammunition. ‘Values’, a word seldom used in the past, has now assumed a central place in our foreign policy rhetoric. Speeches, press conferences and policy statements vibrate with the V-word. If values are now the coin of our foreign policy realm, we will have to start walking the talk.

China’s newfound intimacy with Russia is a strategic blind spot for Australia (Alexey D Muraviev)

23 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

We have become very China-centric in our strategic thinking in Australia — and this could be to our detriment. Beijing’s deepening defence ties with Russia remain a blind spot in our public debate. China and Russia have grown much closer in recent years, especially when it comes to security and defence. Instead of taking a serious look at the ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ between Russia and China, we largely play down what unites these two major nuclear powers and the world’s most potent militaries outside the United States.

Defence spending and plans: will the pandemic take its toll? (IISS)

23 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, COVID-19, Strategy, defence and security

That the pandemic will have an impact on defence ministries is beyond doubt. One way or another, national governments and defence ministries will have to grapple with the immediate and extended effects of the pandemic on their countries’ military spending and resource allocation.

Demystifying Australia’s South China Sea stance (Sam Bateman)

19 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

Despite Australia and the United States having no direct interest in continental shelf claims in the South China Sea, both have recently joined the debate. Both appear to have sought maximum publicity for their submissions – which have been reported as providing the basis for confronting and false media headlines, such as ‘Australia says China’s claims to disputed islands are ‘invalid’ and are not consistent with UN convention on law of the sea’. In fact there is nothing new in the Australian or US statements despite suggestions that they reflect new aggressive stances against China, and it is not clear why Australia and the United States made statements at this particular point in time other than to add another dimension to the intensifying rivalry with China.

Strategic suspicion and coronavirus consequences: the cost of Australia’s defence (Marcus Hellyer)

19 August 2020 Online editor Strategy, defence and security

Marcus Hellyer provides a measured and considered analysis of the spending and force structure proposals associated with Australia’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan. The article considers the proposed funding model, tests the connections between the strategic drivers identified and the capabilities proposed for acquisition, and identifies some of the risks that could affect the successful delivery of the proposed capabilities.

Today’s risks and the history of war: recognising the unknowable

14 August 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, International relations, Strategy, defence and security

Is a great power war in prospect? The study of war provides insights into the preconditions for conflict and an awareness of the unpredictable nature of war. It shows that great power wars can be as unpredictable as they are transformational. The winners are hidden from sight at the inception, and the losers risk everything. If Australian leaders assume they could come out unscathed on the winning side of an East Asian war they are taking a huge gamble on behalf of Australian citizens.

Is Australia’s security policy an expensive failure? (Mark Beeson)

7 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

With the rise of “nontraditional threats”, people are actually feeling increasingly insecure. But “to keep our nation safe and protect our way of life for future generations” the Australian government is promising to spend $270 billion on defence. Even if we weren’t facing the prospect of plunging into the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, this sort of spending and the thinking that underpins it looks highly questionable and unlikely to achieve its central goals.

Australian strategic policy: why we need a robust public debate

7 August 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, Strategy, defence and security

Only a select group of voices is heard most often and most loudly on the subject of Australia’s strategic policy. This creates a false sense of certainty around what is a speculative and inexact policy area. The policy choices, and the connection between strategic policy and force structure, deserve to be intensively examined and validated through public debate – not least of all because the opportunity cost of defence investment is huge.

Australia-China July monthly wrap up | On being ‘very different countries’ – AUSMIN and China’s rise (Australia-China Relations Institute)

4 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

ACRI’s Elena Collinson and James Laurenceson present a useful summary and analysis of major developments in July 2020. The authors’ observations about Australia-China and Australia-US trade issues are a welcome contribution to an area often long on rhetoric and short on analysis. Professor James Curran sees reason for optimism in an assessment of the state of the Australia-China relationship in light of the comments of Australian ministers Payne and Reynolds at the AUSMIN 2020 talks in Washington. But has Australia done enough to distance itself from the US’s confrontational stance with China? Or will Australia-China high-level channels of communication “continue to stagnate”?

No longer a middle power: Australia’s strategy in the 21st century (Andrew Carr)

3 August 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Published in September 2019 by the French Institute of International Relations, this article by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre’s Andrew Carr has increased relevance given Australia’s recent 2020 Defence Strategic Update and the ramping up of its critical comments on China. Andrew Carr punctures the pretensions that infuse Australia’s formal strategic and defence policy documents and found in a lot of political statements. He paints a realistic and sobering picture of the relative decline in military and economic influence facing Australia.

It’s one thing to build war fighting capability, it’s another to build industrial capability (Graeme Dunk)

30 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Analysis suggests that the proportion of contracts awarded to firms that are both Australian operated and owned is low, and that work done by Australian-controlled companies has been increasingly subcontracted to foreign-owned prime contractors. The Australian part of Australia’s defence industry is small, and getting smaller. This subordinate role has important implications for the health of Australia’s industry and national resilience.

Australia’s 2020 Defense Strategic Update and Force Structure Plan: A Paradigm Shift (Ankit Panda)

30 July 2020 Online editor Strategy, defence and security

Ankit Panda reflects on the new context of Australia’s 2020 Strategic Update compared to its predecessor, the 2016 Defence White Paper, and the “bold prescriptions” that flow from Australia’s reassessment of the strategic environment – in particular, the notion of investing more in conventional stand-off weaponry – long-range missiles.

Hidden gems in Australia’s 2020 Force Structure Plan

29 July 2020 Online editor Strategy, defence and security

The recent release of the Defence Strategic Update and Force Structure Plan provided an outline of the Australian government’s defence policy and capability priorities for the next decade. The Force Structure Plan in particular helps define how an additional [AUD] $270 billion will be invested to deliver critical capabilities for a more lethal, flexible, enhanced and independent Australian Defence Force (ADF). The $270 billion shopping list has some surprising inclusions… a close reading of the document reveals items that have largely escaped notice but are interesting because of their value, proximity, implications, novelty – or because they’re just plain weird.

Ocean of debt? Belt and Road and debt diplomacy in the Pacific (Lowy Institute)

27 July 2020 Online editor Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy, Research and reports

The Lowy Institute authors’ objective analysis suggests China has not been engaged in such problematic debt practices in the Pacific as to justify accusations of debt trap diplomacy, at least not to date.

The weaponisation of the US financial system (Jacque Delors Centre)

24 July 2020 Online editor Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy, Research and reports

Secondary sanctions are a potent form of economic coercion that allows the US to extend its jurisdiction well beyond its borders, enabling interference in other nations’ foreign policy independence and infringing other nations’ sovereignty. Knudsen argues that economic autonomy depends on displacing the US from the central role in international finance.

With China-US tensions on the rise, does Australia need a new defence strategy? (Greg Raymond)

14 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Strategy, defence and security

Author: Greg Raymond | The Conversation (Australia) | 22 November 2018 What strategic developments did the 2016 Defence White Paper not anticipate? Do any of these point to a need to radically change Australia’s defence posture? Which of these equate to risks that increased defence spending can obviate? Although written in late 2018, it’s arguable that this article’s observations and judgements have stood the test of time, perhaps taking on greater resonance in the wake of the

Europe’s ‘pushback’ on China: recommendations for EU-China relations (Institut Montaigne)

6 July 2020 Online editor Analysis and comment, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy

A detailed, informative and comprehensive policy paper covering the span of the current state of EU-China relations as the growing economic power of China, and Europe’s awkward situation in the US-China trade war, puts enormous pressure on the EU to find a way to manage relations with China.

Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne

Australia’s foreign policy: Resurgent realism or the survival of multilateralism?

5 July 2020 Mike Scrafton Australian focus, By Mike Scrafton, Foreign policy, trade and diplomacy, International relations

Conceptual confusion is evident in the speechmaking of leading Australian political figures as the post World War II era’s structured international arrangements of durable institutions and agreed norms – designed to facilitate peaceful dispute resolution and cooperation on security, economic and social matters between nations – are challenged by the United States and others.