Diplomatic relations have never been worse with China, the destination of half of Australia’s exports. John West reviews the new book, China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the New Global Order, in which Geoff Raby provides hard-hitting analysis and sharp proposals for getting this crucial relationship back on track.
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The spotlight is back on Australia’s future submarine program, SEA1000. The Hudson Institute report Sustaining the Undersea Advantage: Disrupting Anti-Submarine Warfare Using Autonomous Systems is an excellent introduction to the history of anti-submarine warfare, and to some recent transformational developments in its conduct. It will help readers understand the long history of undersea warfare and how past experience has made older concepts hard to shift.
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The US State Department is reported to have approved a potential sale to Taiwan of four MQ-9 SeaGuardian drones in a deal valued US $600 million, another sale of weapons to Taiwan that will be seen as provocative by China.
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Reuters reports that on 2 November “India, the United States, Japan and Australia began their largest joint naval exercises in over a decade”, “seen as part of efforts to balance China’s vast military and economic power in the region”.
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Something refreshing in the plethora of articles exploring the different dimensions of the current US-China tensions, Harvard Business School’s Andy Zelleke asks, “What ‘yesable proposition,’ fundamentally, is the United States offering China?” What might be the terms of a plausible U.S.-China equilibrium state?
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In a series of three articles, Jon Stanford has argued that Australia needs “a sound military strategy to deter an attack by a great power and careful analysis of how to design the right force structure to deliver it”. An external, more ‘neutral’ review of Australia’s military strategy is proposed. But it is not clear that Australia needs a new military strategy – let alone one that would require a 50 % increase in the Defence budget.
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An invaluable introduction to the complex and critical struggle for technological superiority which will the characterise the geopolitical environment for decades to come. This report sets out all the key issues and addresses the question of how the EU could maintain strategic autonomy in the face of this competition between China and the US.
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The fifth plenum of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 19th Central Committee concluded on 29 October 2020. The gathering of China’s top leaders finalized the blueprint for China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which will set China’s economic and social policy vision for the period from 2021-2025.
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It is reported that officials from China and the US held a video conference meeting about crisis communication on 28-29 October, amid amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea. According to Chinese defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper denied a media report suggesting the US was “studying” a plan to attack Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea using an MQ-9 drone.
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Future pandemics will emerge more often, spread more rapidly, do more damage to the world economy and kill more people than COVID-19 unless there is a transformative change in the global approach to dealing with infectious diseases, warns a major new report on biodiversity and pandemics by 22 leading experts from around the world.
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The Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index 2020 is a substantial undertaking that purports to map “out the existing distribution of power as it stands today, and tracks shifts in the balance of power over time” by ranking “26 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to shape their external environment”. However, a misunderstanding of the concept of power, and some underlying subjectivity and biases, undermines its usefulness.
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The United States is reported to have rejected Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s candidacy for director-general of the World Trade Organization. Dr Okonjo-Iweala is said to have secured wide cross-regional support for her candidacy. The US continues to support the candidacy of South Korea’s trade minister Yoo Myung-hee.
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The inability of the major powers to set new global rules has had a detrimental impact on an international system under significant strain. Linda Yueh argues for a new approach to economic diplomacy that considers not just economic considerations, but also broader foreign policy aims, greater transparency, and a pluralistic approach to global rules to strengthen the multilateral system.
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Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement on Geospatial Cooperation As anticipated, the United States and India have today [27 October 2020] signed an agreement for the sharing of sensitive satellite data during a biannual “2+2” security dialogue in New Delhi. According to Indian defence sources, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) on Geospatial Cooperation will provide India with access to a range of topographical, nautical and aeronautical data necessary for more accurate use of missiles
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Serious calls for reform at the World Bank and the IMF first emerged 50 years ago. After 50 years, the absence of change in either policy or intellectual paradigm has been paralleled by the glaring lack of reform in the governing structures of the Bretton Woods twins. Perhaps this is the time for developing country governments to begin exploring an exit strategy? The IMF and the Bank would like the global South to believe that they are indispensable. They are not.
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Whether it is the West’s relative decline or the “rise of the rest,” the Eastward shift of geostrategic gravity is a reality. That reality presents major ideational and institutional challenges to the West’s domination of the international order. The challenge for international relations theorists and policy-makers is to demonstrate that Western-framed status quo versus revisionist analysis provides a disinterested assessment of “non-Western” institutional initiatives.
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The annual Asia Power Index measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia. The 2020 edition — which covers three years of data — is the most comprehensive assessment of the changing distribution of power in Asia so far. Among other things, it aims to sharpen the debate on the geopolitical consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The fact that the International Monetary Fund recognises the urgency of addressing anthropogenic induced climate change and the importance of reducing carbon emissions from human activity by 2050 must be seen as a welcome step. But the report is impractical and naïve in some respects. The next step needs to go beyond the high level of abstraction that smooths over the diversity of economic, political and climate impacts in local situations.
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Adam Tooze’s reflections on the significance of President Xi’s announced intention to take China to carbon neutrality by 2060 are replete with acute observations and valuable insights. The enormity of the climate challenge, and the looming titanic struggle over who will bear the costs, is clear from Tooze’s analysis.
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Without assistance, emerging economies and developing countries (EEDCs) will continue to add increasing amounts of greenhouses gases to the atmosphere for decades, preventing the curbing of global warming and adversely impacting all countries. While EEDCs were always going to require substantial assistance from the advanced economies, the need for strong multilateral action has become more urgent.
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